Forecast for Occurrence Amount of Oriental Migratory Locust in Coastal Locust Area of the Yellow River Delta

The survey data and meteorological data of oriental migratory locust in coastal locust area of the Yellow River delta in the past 26 years were analyzed by stepwise regression method. The suited meteorological forecast factors were selected to establish the statistic forecast models for the occurrence area of summer locust and autumn locust and the occurrence density of summer locust respectively, and these forecast models all passed the 0.05 significance statistic tests. The forecast value and forecast applying effect for 2009 of each model were verified, the results showed that there was a high forecast accuracy of each forecast model.