故障树分析
概率逻辑
概率风险评估
可靠性工程
可靠性(半导体)
事件树
计算机科学
危害
可靠性理论
组分(热力学)
事件(粒子物理)
断层(地质)
风险分析(工程)
工程类
功率(物理)
故障率
人工智能
物理
地质学
地震学
有机化学
化学
热力学
医学
量子力学
作者
John Steven Holmes,Viral N. Shah
摘要
Abstract Recent regulatory changes have moved in the direction of more oversight and more prescriptive solutions. One of the areas that can help operators and drillers alike deal with the new regulations is improved risk analysis. This paper addresses a methodology for Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) modeling of blowout preventer (BOP) systems. The PRA utilizes a combination of event trees and fault trees to determine the probability of a hazard under a given set of conditions. The fault trees are populated with reliability data from the best available sources. Traditional BOP risk analysis was done on a deterministic approach. The probabilistic approach will allow a logical method to assess top level hazards resulting from specific component failures. This approach has been used in other industries such as nuclear power and space exploration. A method of combining testing intervals with PRA results to determine the probability of failure on demand is also included.
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