Urban-rural land structural conflicts in China: A land use transition perspective

China's rapid urbanization over the past decades triggered a growing structural conflict in regional land use, and this conflict is particularly evident in urban-rural land systems. By analyzing the evolution pattern of urban-rural land transition and its drivers, thus revealing the structural conflicts status of urban-rural land at different phases, which can provide scientific reference for decision-making to realize deep urban-rural land integration. Therefore, this study constructs a theoretical framework for urban-rural land structural conflict and uses spatial analysis and dynamic distribution methods to test the hypothesis of differences in urban-rural land evolution patterns and driver characteristics under different conflict phases in China during 2000–2020. The results of spatiotemporal characteristics showed that urban-rural land expansion (URLE) showed an inverted U-shaped curve trend over time. The regional differences in urban land expansion (ULE) kept decreasing, while the regional differences in rural land expansion (RLE) in developed areas showed an inverted N-shaped trend. The URLE converged to low values with increasing probability of negative expansion over time. Furthermore, RLE has a greater probability of negative expansion than ULE. The results of the driving factor analysis showed that the impact of socioeconomic factors on the URLE decayed over time, and the decay of the impact on the RLE preceded that of the ULE. All the above results prove the original hypothesis. This study can provide new decision-making ideas for achieving deep regional urban-rural land integration and promoting high-quality urban-rural development.